Keadaan banjir di Pantai Timur terutama di Kelantan dan Terengganu berkemungkinan menjadi lebih buruk berikutan amaran hujan lebat peringkat jingga dikeluarkan oleh Jabatan Meteorologi Malaysia hari ini.
Banjir juga berkemungkinan akan merebak ke beberapa kawasan lain di utara Semenanjung memandangkan hujan lebat dijangka berterusan selama beberapa hari lagi.
Menurut kenyataan jabatan itu di sini hari ini, hujan sederhana dengan kadang- kala lebat dari semasa ke semasa akan berlaku di Kelantan dan Terengganu hingga ke waktu malam, Ahad ini.
“Antara daerah yang terbabit di Kelantan ialah Tumpat, Kota Bharu, Bachok, Pasir Puteh, Pasir Mas, Tanah Merah, Machang, Jeli dan Kuala Krai.
“Terengganu pula melibatkan daerah Besut, Setiu, Kuala Terengganu, Marang dan Hulu Terengganu,” kata kenyataan itu.
Menurutnya, amaran jingga dan keadaan hujan berterusan mampu menyebabkan banjir di kawasan tanah rendah dan tebing-tebing sungai. - Utusan Online 1/12/08

p/s: memang pun, hujan kat area Paka ni tak berhenti2 sejak 2 hari lepas. Last banjir besar pada tahun 2004 (air sungai melimpah tebing dan menenggelamkan beberapa kawasan perumahan. Yg sadis nyer adalah folks dari Dungun tak leh datang kerja pasal terputus hubungan jalanraya semasa Quench Tower & CGC shutdown untuk repair work. Harap2 banjir kali ni tak seteruk dulu pasal sistem perparitan dah di "improve" kan di Paka nie. Insyallah.

The global petrochemical cycle will turn modestly down in 2008 and beyond, as US demand suffers and Middle East capacity comes online

"RESILIENT" IS the word to best characterize the global petrochemical industry. The sector had a solid 2007 despite major headwinds, but the down cycle will start to manifest itself in 2008 and beyond.
In the US, sales by major chemical firms, as reported by the American Chemical Society (ACS) were about $176bn (€113bn), up by 9.9% over 2006. Earnings of nearly $15bn were up by 12%.
Nexant's cash margin index for US petrochemicals and polymers held steady through 2007 at about 70 and in Europe at 180 (1984 = 100).
Indeed, the indices have been at these levels since the industry recovery from the last recession, at the beginning of the decade.
The industry's performance has been noteworthy at a time of unprecedented and inexorable feedstock cost increases, especially those related to crude oil, such as naphtha.
Crude oil prices averaged just $66/bbl in 2006. Prices paused briefly in early 2007 as winter demand eased, and then increased to close out the year in triple-digit territory.
The 2007 average is a breathtaking $73/bbl. That the industry could maintain profitability throughout 2007 in the face of these price movements is a testament to its importance to customers and its skills in passing through cost increases.
Profitability in the critically important olefins and aromatics areas was strong. Cash cost margins for ethylene from natural gas liquids (NGL) in the US held up very well in 2007, yielding pretax returns on investment in the range 25-35% - well into reinvestment territory if companies were so minded.
By contrast, ethylene margins from naphtha in the US, Europe and Asia were one third of NGL-based margins, reflecting the comparative cost advantage that US ethane and propane have had over globally priced oil-based naphtha.
In aromatics, benzene continues to present problems, with prices that depressed extraction returns.

On the supply side, China continues to develop its petrochemical industry, although its investment program is meeting domestic demand growth and not leading to import substitution.
In the next two years, China will bring online about 1.5m tonnes/year of new ethylene capacity, an increase of 15%.
Over the same time frame, Middle East capacity is projected to grow by 8.2m tonnes/year - an astonishing 60%. New capacity in Iran, Saudi Arabia and other countries will therefore be entering Asian and European markets. Other potential markets will undoubtedly be targeted.
With moderating US GDP growth, Nexant forecasts global ethylene demand growth at 4.2% in 2007-2008 but then at a more constrained 3.7% in 2008-2009.
As a consequence, we forecast global ethylene operating rates to ease from 92% in both 2007 and 2008, to 89% in 2009, with some consequent reduction in margins. We project a continuation of the slowdown already apparent in the last months of 2007.

Business Cycle

The term business cycle or economic cycle refers to the fluctuations of economic activity (business fluctuations) around its long-term growth trend. The cycle involves shifts over time between periods of relatively rapid growth of output (recovery and prosperity), and periods of relative stagnation or decline (contraction or recession). These fluctuations are often measured using the real gross domestic product. Despite being termed cycles, these fluctuations in economic growth and decline do not follow a purely mechanical or predictable periodic pattern.

Types of business cycle:
A number of types of business cycles, in the traditional sense of a fluctuation within a regular period have been proposed. The main types of business cycles enumerated by Joseph Schumpeter, and others in this field, have been named after their discoverers or proposers:
1. the Kitchin inventory cycle (3–5 years) — after Joseph Kitchin,
2. the Juglar fixed investment cycle (7–11 years) — after Clement Juglar,
3. the Kuznets infrastructural investment cycle (15–25 years) — after Simon Kuznets, Nobel Laureate,
4. the Kondratieff wave or cycle (45–60 years) — after Nikolai Kondratieff.
5. the Forrester cycles (200 years) - after Jay Wright Forrester.
6. the Toffler civilisation cycles (1000-2000 years) - after Alvin Toffler.
Even longer cycles are occasionally proposed, often as multiples of the Kondratieff cycle. Interest in traditional business cycles was strongest before World War II. However, interest has waned since the development of modern macroeconomics, which generally gives little support to the idea of regular periodic cycles.

Juglar cycle:
In 1860, French economist Clement Juglar identified the presence of 8 to 11 year cycles. In Business Cycles, Schumpeter suggested this cycle be named after Juglar. These cycles are made up of four stages, each linked to the variation in prices, production and interest rates:
1. expansion = increase in production and prices , and low interests rates.
2. crisis = stock exchanges crash and bankruptcies of several companies occur.
3. recession = decrease in price and in output, high interests rates.
4. recovery= stocks recover thanks to the fall in prices and incomes.
In the Juglar cycle, which is sometimes called "the" business cycle, recovery and prosperity are associated with increases in productivity, consumer confidence, aggregate demand, and prices. In the cycles before World War II or that of the late 1990s in the United States, the growth periods usually ended with the failure of speculative investments built on a bubble of confidence that bursts or deflates. In these cycles, the periods of contraction and stagnation reflect a purging of unsuccessful enterprises as resources are transferred by market forces from less productive uses to more productive uses. Cycles between 1945 and the 1990s in the United States were generally more restrained and followed political factors, such as fiscal policy and monetary policy. Automatic stabilisation due to the government's budget helped defeat the cycle even without conscious action by policy-makers.
A colloquial term for a crisis of this time scale is a "decennial crisis" (meaning one that occurs after about ten years). This phrase was used during the Great Depression due its similarity with the Panic of 1825 in London ten years after the end of the Napoleonic Wars. After the Second World War, however, the nearest equivalent in time and intensity was the recession of 1958.

Salam Aidil Fitri - Buat Semua...

Raya datang lagi!!!

Itulah ungkapan yang akan terkeluar dari mulut ramai orang bila dah dekat nak beraya nie. Raya nie kan raya puasa, apa lagi, baliklah semua ke kampung halaman masing-masing (first time tak dapat balik beraya masa OPTIMAL Olefins start-up tahun 2001). Lepas tu aku sememangnya dapat beraya di kampung halaman (sendiri & wife - 1st raya akan alternate setiap tahun)

Dihari baik bulan baik nie, Kami sekeluarga (Anuar, CT, Zikry, Dina, Zaty & Haiqal) nak meluahkan perasaan gembira serta ucapan "Selamat Hari Raya Aidil Fitri" Minal Aidin wal Faizin kepada ibubapa & mertua, adik-beradik, pak & mak saudara, anak2 saudara, sepupu sepapat & semua rakan2 seperjuangan, rakan2 kerja se-office, rakan2 di dunia cyber & bloggers, rakan2 sejawatan, warga kerja OPTIMAL baik di Kerteh mahupun di DayaBumi KL, rakan2 lama di Titan Chem Pasir Gudang & di Yansab(SABIC, Yanbu KSA) ataupun di mana-mana jua di muka bumi Allah ini. Semoga diberkati rahmatNya selalu. Minta halalkan segala apa jua terutamanya bab termakan & terminum tu.. dengan menyusun sepuluh jari sekiranya ada terkasar bahasa & tersilap bicara dimohon kemaafan atas ketelanjuran kata...

SELAMAT HARI RAYA AIDIL FITRI

MAAF ZAHIR & BATIN

Lebaran 1429H - Anuar Amaji

Selamat Menyambut Ramadhan..

Mata ke kadang salah melihat.... Mulut ke kadang salah berucap.... Hati ke kadang salah menduga..... Maafkan segala kesilapan yang pasti ada....

MARHABAN YAA RAMADHAN

Assalaamu'alaikum wr.wb..
Marhaban ya Ramadhan,
Bulan dimana nafas kita menjadi tasbih,
tidur kita menjadi ibadah,
amal kita diterima dan do'a kita di ijabah,
Sungguh cantik kain pelekat,
dipakai orang pergi ke pekan.
Puasa Ramadhan semakin dekat,
silap dan salah mohon dimaafkan.
Berharap padi dalam lesung,
yang ada cuma rumpun jerami,
harapan hati bertatap langsung,
cuma terlayang e-mail ini.
Sebelum cahaya surga padam,
Sebelum hidup berakhir,
Sebelum pintu tobat tertutup,
Sebelum Ramadhan datang,
saya mohon maaf lahir dan bathin....
Taqqobalahu Minna Waminkum,
Taqoballahu Ya Karim,
Marhaban Ya Ramadhan Allaahumma baariklanaa fi Sya'ban wa ballighnaa Ramadhan Aminn.

SELAMAT MENUNAIKAN IBADAH PUASA SEMOGA KITA DAPAT MEN JALANKAN IBADAH PUASA DENGAN OPTIMAL, AAMIN.
Wassalamu'alaikum Wr Wb,